Optimizing Clinical Trial Designs with Quantitative Decision Frameworks: Integrating Pharmacometric, Financial, and Commercial Models to Optimize Value
Tyler Dunlap, Pharm.D., DABCP, Brian Corrigan, Ph.D., Akintunde Bello, Ph.D., Marc Gastonguay, Ph.D.
Presented at the 2026 American Conference on Pharmacometrics (ACoP 2026), an International Conference on Pharmacometrics in the US (ICoP – US), on October 11, 2026.
Biopharmaceutical research and development (R&D) productivity, defined as the aggregate return on investment (ROI) for all drug development activities, is declining despite increased global participation and rapid technological advancement. The use of all available data sources, quantitative modeling to inform all decisions, removal of organizational silos, and adoption of quantitative decision frameworks (QDFs) have been proposed as key strategies to improve R&D productivity. This work aimed to propose a framework for linking pharmacometric, commercial, and financial valuation models to support optimization of a hypothetical Phase 3 trial design with respect to the expected ROI (eROI), defined as the ratio of the risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) to the committed capital (CC).